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SIER 2017, Wilfried Adohinzin presentation
 
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Macro-Finance Panel. Chair: David Gbaguidi. “Informality and Responses to Exogenous Shocks: A Bayesian DSGE for Small Open Economy”, by Wilfried Adohinzin - Pre-Doctoral Fellow; ASE
“Informality and Responses to Exogenous Shocks..." (short version)
 
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“Informality and Responses to Exogenous Shocks: A Bayesian DSGE for Small Open Economy” by Wilfried Adohinzin - Pre-Doctoral Fellow; ASE (Short version)
7inR 10. Gali, Monacelli (2005). Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Eco...
 
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Сегодня на семинаре Екатерина Казакова представит статью Gali, Monacelli (2005). Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy.  Abstract: We lay out a small open economy version of the Calvo sticky price model, and show how the equilibrium dynamics can be reduced to a simple representation in domestic inflation and the output gap. We use the resulting framework to analyse the macroeconomic implications of three alternative rule- based policy regimes for the small open economy: domestic inflation and CPI-based Taylor rules, and an exchange rate peg. We show that a key difference among these regimes lies in the relative amount of exchange rate volatility that they entail. We also discuss a special case for which domestic inflation targeting constitutes the optimal policy, and where a simple second order approximation to the utility of the representative consumer can be derived and used to evaluate the welfare losses associated with the suboptimal rules.
Views: 519 Nikolay Arefiev
Economics and Finance: Macroeconomics and Fiscal Policy
 
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Moderator: Ricardo Caballero PhD '88, Ford International Professor of Economics and Department Head. MIT Panel: Pedro Aspe PhD '78, Co-Chairman, Evercore Partners and Chairman and CEO, Protego Robert Gordon PhD '67, Stanley G. Harris Professor of Social Sciences, Northwestern University Olivier Blanchard PhD '77, Class of 1941 Professor of Economics, MIT and Chief Economist, International Monetary Fund Paul Krugman PhD '77, Professor of Economics and International Affairs, Princeton University N. Gregory Mankiw PhD '84, Robert M. Beren Professor of Economics, Harvard University Christina Romer PhD '85, Class of 1957–Garff B. Wilson Professor of Economics, University of California, Berkeley.
12. Overlapping Generations Models of the Economy
 
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Financial Theory (ECON 251) In order for Social Security to work, people have to believe there's some possibility that the world will last forever, so that each old generation will have a young generation to support it. The overlapping generations model, invented by Allais and Samuelson but here augmented with land, represents such a situation. Financial equilibrium can again be reduced to general equilibrium. At first glance it would seem that the model requires a solution of an infinite number of supply equals demand equations, one for each time period. But by assuming stationarity, the whole analysis can be reduced to one equation. In this mathematical framework we reach an even more precise and subtle understanding of Social Security and the real rate of interest. We find that Social Security likely increases the real rate of interest. The presence of land, an infinitely lived asset that pays a perpetual dividend, forces the real rate of interest to be positive, exposing the flaw in Samuelson's contention that Social Security is a giant, yet beneficial, Ponzi scheme where each generation can win by perpetually deferring a growing cost. 00:00 - Chapter 1. Introduction to the Overlapping Generation Model 12:59 - Chapter 2. Financial and General Equilibrium in Social Security 26:37 - Chapter 3. Present Value Analysis of Social Security 59:24 - Chapter 4. Real Rate of Interest and Social Security Complete course materials are available at the Open Yale Courses website: http://open.yale.edu/courses This course was recorded in Fall 2009.
Views: 34151 YaleCourses
Talk to the Cambridge Society for Economic Pluralism on non-mainstream macroeconomic modelling
 
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Cambridge University is one of many leading universities where economics students get no exposure to non-mainstream approaches to economics in their curriculum. The students have therefore organised their own Society for Economic Pluralism, and they asked me to speak on "Can we avoid another financial crisis?". I also covered alternative approaches to economic modelling to the mainstream DSGE approach, including: applying Neural Networks to Macroeconomics, which one of my best PhD students (Dr. Soner Teknikeller) did successfully back in 2013; Complex Systems Macroeconomics, deriving a core macroeconomic model directly from macroeconomic definitions; and Monetary Stock-Flow Consistent Macroeconomics, which I illustrate using a dynamic model of the Paradox of Thrift in the system dynamics program Minsky.
Views: 1085 ProfSteveKeen
Has the crisis changed the framework for studying the economy?
 
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Economist Jordi Galí analyses the causes and consequences of the current crisis from a macroeconomic perspective in the inaugural lecture for the academic year 2014/2015 at the Universitat Oberta de Catalunya.
CGE model
 
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Quick overview of computable equilibrium models (CGEs), which are used frequently when trying to understand the economy-wide impact of policy changes. The are not forecasts but instead are simulations of what the economy might look like if a particular policy were in place for a base year.
Views: 14353 Mike Moore
menu costs review
 
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Views: 1014 Carl Coates
What is REPRESENTATIVE AGENT? What does REPRESENTATIVE AGENT mean? REPRESENTATIVE AGENT meaning
 
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What is REPRESENTATIVE AGENT? What does REPRESENTATIVE AGENT mean? REPRESENTATIVE AGENT meaning - REPRESENTATIVE AGENT definition - REPRESENTATIVE AGENT explanation. Source: Wikipedia.org article, adapted under https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ license. Economists use the term representative agent to refer to the typical decision-maker of a certain type (for example, the typical consumer, or the typical firm). More technically, an economic model is said to have a representative agent if all agents of the same type are identical. Also, economists sometimes say a model has a representative agent when agents differ, but act in such a way that the sum of their choices is mathematically equivalent to the decision of one individual or many identical individuals. This occurs, for example, when preferences are Gorman aggregable. A model that contains many different agents whose choices cannot be aggregated in this way is called a heterogeneous agent model. The notion of the representative agent can be traced back to the late 19th century. Francis Edgeworth (1881) used the term "representative particular", while Alfred Marshall (1890) introduced a "representative firm" in his Principles of Economics. However, after Robert Lucas, Jr.'s critique of econometric policy evaluation spurred the development of microfoundations for macroeconomics, the notion of the representative agent became more prominent and more controversial. Many macroeconomic models today are characterized by an explicitly stated optimization problem of the representative agent, which may be either a consumer or a producer (or, frequently, both types of representative agents are present). The derived individual demand or supply curves are then used as the corresponding aggregate demand or supply curves. When economists study a representative agent, this is because it is usually simpler to consider to one 'typical' decision maker instead of simultaneously analyzing many different decisions. Of course, economists must abandon the representative agent assumption when differences between individuals are central to the question at hand. For example, a macroeconomist might analyze the impact of a rise of oil prices on a typical 'representative' consumer; but some analyses of auctions involve heterogeneous agent models because competing potential buyers can value the good differently. Hartley (1997) discusses the reasons for the prominence of representative agent modelling in contemporary macroeconomics. The Lucas critique (1976) pointed out that policy recommendations based on observed past macroeconomic relationships may neglect subsequent behavioral changes by economic agents, which, when added up, would change the macroeconomic relationships themselves. He argued that this problem would be avoided in models that explicitly described the decision-making situation of the individual agent. In such a model, an economist could analyze a policy change by recalculating the decision problem of each agent under the new policy, then aggregating these decisions to calculate the macroeconomic effects of the change. Lucas' influential argument convinced many macroeconomists to build microfounded models of this kind. However, this was technically more difficult than earlier modelling strategies. Therefore, almost all the earliest general equilibrium macroeconomic models were simplified by assuming that consumers and/or firms could be described as a representative agent. General equilibrium models with many heterogeneous agents are much more complex, and are therefore still a relatively new field of economic research. Hartley, however, finds these reasons for representative agent modelling unconvincing. Kirman (1992), too, is critical of the representative agent approach in economics. Because representative agent models simply ignore valid aggregation concerns, they sometimes commit the so-called fallacy of composition. He provides an example in which the representative agent disagrees with all individuals in the economy. Policy recommendations to improve the welfare of the representative agent would be illegitimate in this case. Kirman concludes that the reduction of a group of heterogeneous agents to a representative agent is not just an analytical convenience, but it is "both unjustified and leads to conclusions which are usually misleading and often wrong." In his view, the representative agent "deserves a decent burial, as an approach to economic analysis that is not only primitive, but fundamentally erroneous." A possible alternative to the representative agent approach to economics could be agent-based simulation models which are capable of dealing with many heterogeneous agents. Another alternative is to construct dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models with heterogeneous agents, which is difficult, but is becoming more common (Ríos-Rull, 1995; Heathcote, Storesletten, and Violante 2009; Canova 2007 section 2.1.2).
Views: 682 The Audiopedia
Inflation Nowcasting at the Federal Reserve
 
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The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland publishes inflation nowcasts, which can help forecasters understand where inflation is today and where it is likely to be in the future. Find our daily inflation nowcast or learn more: https://www.clevelandfed.org/inflation-central/nowcasting.cfm Watch more videos via the Cleveland Fed’s channel: http://www.youtube.com/clevelandfed Subscribe to receive new videos in your feed: http://www.youtube.com/subscription_center?add_user=yourchannelname
Views: 776 ClevelandFed
Macro-Prudential Policy after the Great Recession Part 2/2
 
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By Dr Susan Wachter, Professor of Real Estate and Finance at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Asset Securitisation and Management in Asia In the wake of an unprecedented housing bubble and global recession, scholars and policymakers have acknowledged the necessity of macro-prudential policies in the financial sector. The success of these policies in preventing a repeat occurrence, however, will depend on how they address two challenges. First, they must target specific information failures within the real estate market that make this asset class especially susceptible to boom-and-bust behavior. Second, they must moderate the endogenous swings in debt that characterize the modern global economy. This talk will discuss these lessons learned and the policy challenges ahead.
Views: 200 SgSMU
Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity
 
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In research and policy circles, many have pointed to uncertainty over policy decisions as a drag on the economy that is slowing recovery from the recession. However, evidence of the level and impact of uncertainty has been scarce. In this timely conference, the Becker Friedman Institute brought together scholars from around the world to share new work on uncertainty and its economic consequences on business decision-making, economic activity, asset pricing, and more. If you experience technical difficulties with this video or would like to make an accessibility-related request, please send a message to [email protected]
Macroeconomic Fragility: Optimal Time-Consistent Macroprudential Policy
 
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Can credit frictions -- modeled as a limit on households' borrowing capacity -- reproduce some of the quantitative features we observe during credit booms and busts? What type of time-consistent macro-prudential regulation can be implemented in order to reduce and/or eliminate the effect of credit frictions and therefore reduce the frequency and severity of such crisis? Javier Bianchi attempts at answering these questions using a standard business cycle model where households' borrowing capacity is capped at a certain fraction of households' asset level. If you experience technical difficulties with this video or would like to make an accessibility-related request, please send a message to [email protected]
Bernard Connolly: why Brexit is good for small companies
 
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In the second part of his interview with Merryn Somerset Webb, Bernard Connolly talks about the corporate oligopolies developing in the EU, and how smaller companies would be better off out of it.
Views: 3839 MoneyWeek
New Keynesian economics
 
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New Keynesian economics is a school of contemporary macroeconomics that strives to provide microeconomic foundations for Keynesian economics. It developed partly as a response to criticisms of Keynesian macroeconomics by adherents of New Classical macroeconomics. Two main assumptions define the New Keynesian approach to macroeconomics. Like the New Classical approach, New Keynesian macroeconomic analysis usually assumes that households and firms have rational expectations. But the two schools differ in that New Keynesian analysis usually assumes a variety of market failures. In particular, New Keynesians assume that there is imperfect competition in price and wage setting to help explain why prices and wages can become "sticky", which means they do not adjust instantaneously to changes in economic conditions. This video is targeted to blind users. Attribution: Article text available under CC-BY-SA Creative Commons image source in video
Views: 3546 Audiopedia
Simple Model Explains Complex Keynesian Concepts
 
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Lecture on Macroeconomics develops a simple model to illustrate how nominal wage bargain does not lead to determination of real wage -- central Keynesian concept of Chapter 2 of General Theory. Many other key Keynesian concepts can be easily discussed within this model. For COURSE homepage see: sites.google.com/site/az4macro
Views: 164 Asad Zaman
Macro Models for Policy: Session 1
 
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Workshop at NIBAF:, 22 Oct 2016 -- for program details, and conference materials see: http://bit.do/pidemm4p
Views: 163 Asad Zaman
Macroeconomics
 
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Macroeconomics is a branch of economics dealing with the performance, structure, behavior, and decision-making of an economy as a whole, rather than individual markets. This includes national, regional, and global economies. With microeconomics, macroeconomics is one of the two most general fields in economics. This video targeted to blind users. Attribution: Article text available under CC-BY-SA Creative Commons image source in video
Views: 15 encyclopediacc
Concept of new classical school & new  keynesian economic theory by dhkald.blogspot.com
 
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difference between new classical economics and new Keynesian economics, economic theory lectured by Deepak Dhakal, dhkald.blogspot.com
Views: 70 Deep Nepal
Macroeconomics | Definition and Explanation of Macroeconomics (Audio Book)
 
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Macroeconomics | Definition, Concepts, Models and Policy of Macroeconomics (Audio Book) : Macroeconomics is a branch of economics dealing with the performance, structure, behavior, and decision-making of an economy as a whole rather than individual markets. This includes national, regional, and global economies. The word Macroeconomic was used to Fast time University professor Ragnar Friech. Along with microeconomics, macroeconomics is one of the two most general fields in economics. Macroeconomists study aggregated indicators such as GDP, unemployment rates, national income, price indices, and the interrelations among the different sectors of the economy to better understand how the whole economy functions. Macroeconomists develop models that explain the relationship between such factors as national income, output, consumption, unemployment, inflation, savings, investment, international trade and international finance. In contrast, microeconomics is primarily focused on the actions of individual agents, such as firms and consumers, and how their behavior determines prices and quantities in specific markets. While macroeconomics is a broad field of study, there are two areas of research that are emblematic of the discipline: the attempt to understand the causes and consequences of short-run fluctuations in national income (the business cycle), and the attempt to understand the determinants of long-run economic growth(increases in national income). Macroeconomic models and their forecasts are used by governments to assist in the development and evaluation of economic policy. Macroeconomics encompasses a variety of concepts and variables, but there are three central topics for macroeconomic research.Macroeconomic theories usually relate the phenomena of output, unemployment, and inflation. Outside of macroeconomic theory, these topics are also important to all economic agents including workers, consumers, and producers. National output is the total amount of everything a country produces in a given period of time. Everything that is produced and sold generates an equal amount of income. Therefore, output and income are usually considered equivalent and the two terms are often used interchangeably. Output can be measured as total income, or it can be viewed from the production side and measured as the total value of final goods and services or the sum of all value added in the economy. Macroeconomic output is usually measured by gross domestic product (GDP) or one of the other national accounts. Economists interested in long-run increases in output study economic growth. Advances in technology, accumulation of machinery and other capital, and better education and human capital all lead to increased economic output over time. However, output does not always increase consistently. Business cycles can cause short-term drops in output called recessions. Economists look for macroeconomic policies that prevent economies from slipping into recessions and that lead to faster long-term growth. The amount of unemployment in an economy is measured by the unemployment rate, i.e. the percentage of workers without jobs in the labor force. The unemployment rate in the labor force only includes workers actively looking for jobs. People who are retired, pursuing education, or discouraged from seeking work by a lack of job prospects are excluded. Unemployment can be generally broken down into several types that are related to different causes. Classical unemployment theory suggests that unemployment occurs when wages are too high for employers to be willing to hire more workers. Other more modern economic theories suggest that increased wages actually decrease unemployment by creating more consumer demand. According to these more recent theories, unemployment results from reduced demand for the goods and services produced through labor and suggest that only in markets where profit margins are very low, and in which the market will not bear a price increase of product or service, will higher wages result in unemployment. ........................................................................... Sources: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macroeconomics Background Music: Evgeny Teilor, https://www.jamendo.com/track/1176656/oceans Image Sources: www.pixabay.com www.openclipart.com
Views: 1088 Free Audio Books
Law and Reality Preview - 1/31/16 - Hosted by Ken Gross
 
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Law and Reality www.lawandreality.com is a Radio and TV Show that began in 2008, at the beginning of the Financial Crisis and was originally called The Financial Crisis Talk Center. The TV show airs Sunday mornings at 11 AM on TV20 in Metro Detroit and Fox66 in Flint. The radio show airs on Tuesday's Noon to 1 PM on WCHB 1200AM/99.9FM. Attorney, Leader in the Law and Author Ken Gross is the host, along with Co-hosts, David Einstandig and Brian Small and Jenny Lingl from the law firm, THAV GROSS www,thavgross.com. The show covers the latest up to date political and financial news events effecting individuals and small business - and boasts a unique, creative and often fun approach to addressing critically important issues.
Views: 52 Ken Gross