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Why Trading Forex is so Difficult - Randomness in the Markets: Clusters of Bad and Good Luck

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● We interview traders & educators regularly. Subscribe if you want to learn while being entertained. ✔ Please like the video and comment if you enjoyed - it helps a lot! ● To Trade forex we recommend InterTrader http://www.financial-spread-betting.com/intertrader/intertrader.html No Dealing Desk platform. Why Trading Forex is so Difficult: Randomness in the Markets: Clusters of Bad and Good Luck. David Paul, Financial Trader comments. If you found value in watching this video, PLEASE LIKE AND SHARE so we can do more! It is always my understanding that it is difficult to make money long term when trading currencies and indices - how do you manage? Most trend following systems have less than a 50% correct hit rate. This means that you get a series of losing trades from time-to-time - how good would you be with executing your system with precision when you get 5 losing trades in a row.
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Text Comments (156)
day dreamer (3 days ago)
bang on.after experinnicingg such issue i hv learnt risk management is always necessary.
Simon Cornell (5 days ago)
Came for Forex advice - received a life lesson :D
Dihliz Nur (5 days ago)
because you dont have much or big balance..so forex is difficult...
Luca Puzzoli (12 days ago)
Euphoria is a riskless state of mind ! be confident but not euphoric
scott medes (14 days ago)
studying charts doesnt allow you to study business.
kebman (21 days ago)
Is he South African? Ah, so he _is_ South African! Hehe, I gather I have a hunch why he'd bet on copper, then...
Gerald Davis (1 month ago)
What do I do if I want to sell South Africa short.
quan talor (1 month ago)
All you gotta do is keep up with the trend , it’s really not that difficult, you must have multiple strategies as well , it’s literally like robbing a bank
RightClic God (1 month ago)
I got a sick winrate, way better than what he mentions, but I risk 1 to make 1 lol. I like winning, so I prefer it that way :) Just wanted to say, there is not just 1 way to do things.
Crazy Variety Tv (1 month ago)
The key is MM. example You have 1000usd and trading with lot size 0.01 that very smart but you have 1000usd and trading with lot size 1.00 that very STUPID.
BROJR. (1 month ago)
great, thank you.
Jacob Cooley (1 month ago)
buy currency in a growing economy(india) and sell currency in a failing economy(japan). hold on for a couple years. use 2-5 leverage.
Mitu Sens (1 month ago)
Excellent observations, he makes great sense. The subtitles are a scream.
S Capone (1 month ago)
I HAVE HAD ENOUGH OF HEARING THIS NONSENSE. This is hands down the most misleading and stupid interview I have ever seen. Trading forex is not random for god's sake. Price is driven by supply and demand. economic news releases are all priced into the forex markets like you wouldnt believe. People lose because of 3 main things. 1...psychology (fear, impatience, greed, stupidity) 2...No understanding of money/risk management and 3...They dont have ONE strategy/setup that they have mastered/backtested, and understand in which conditions the strategy/setup works a HUGE majority of the time, and in which conditions it doesnt. I trade 1 setup with a 90-95% win rate with a risk:reward of minium 1:2 per trade. This guy in this interview is not a good trader. Period. If your strategy/setup works "50%" of the time then it can work 90-99% of the time. How you may ask? It is simple. Find the common factors/market conditions as to why your strategy only worked in that "50%" bracket of wins. You WILL find that all your winners have similar things. Then, have the PATIENCE to WAIT and only trade when the market is in those EXACT similar conditions. For example. was the market structure trending? was it ranging? was it during london session? newyork session? Just think about it...
Sam Finance Concepts (1 month ago)
Forex trading is difficult... Had to use high leverage for gains.. An 0.1% miss and it will be over 😵
Charlie Brookes (1 month ago)
The things i would do to talk one on one with that man for an hour...
ForgottenKnight1 (1 month ago)
Theory is all nice and dandy, but this does not happen in real trading. What happens in real trading is that you can get 2 wins, for example followed by 6 losses in a row, then 5 wins, followed by 1 loss, then 9 followed by 3 and so on. It is much more random than you think. You cannot theorize your success rate. Also, much more important is not the frequency of your losses, but the consequences of each particular loss. You can be wrong 9 times and right just 1 to make it even when it comes to money. The opposite can also happen, where 9 wins get erased by 1 loss. So frequency is not so important as consequence .
Sam Finance Concepts (1 month ago)
ForgottenKnight1 , you are right when it comes to forex trading....
Lirio Winston (2 months ago)
after this video i am considering selling my granny
Aleks Martini (2 months ago)
Bla bla bla ... machine learning and AI is the future
Michael M. (2 months ago)
surprisingly very good interview
jullian mark (2 months ago)
top top man. wisdom and knowledge with no ego.
Dirk Maier (2 months ago)
And Forex is a Zero-Sum game. That what you win must another lose. And there are mostly Banks and other professional Traders against you. I tried it but the Stock-Market is easier in my opinion because that is no Zero-Sum game and when the Stocks go up all can win. Win-Win-Situation for everybody . Thats much easier.
SCHRODINGER’S CAT (2 months ago)
dont listen to a forex trader who says its easy. he hasn't hit the wipe out yet. trading forex is a humbling experience. theres absolutely nothing 'easy' about trading currencies.
P. Thriver (2 months ago)
I want to be this guy when I grow up. But with more hair.
Tharwat Jad (2 months ago)
What a beautiful and genius mind I really like him
Tudor Renegade (2 months ago)
This is so true, I have experienced all those states!
JmansFragments (2 months ago)
Im.gunna slay the forex markets completely on a super level 🔥 watch
Iwona Rudnik (3 months ago)
who is this guy
CeleronS1 (3 months ago)
5 straight loses is not 32 but 25. Just sayin :D
Aleksey Foorkalo (3 months ago)
I love how the guy, claiming to be a trader talks about market as it's some kind of casino. Why not go and play real roulette then, huh,monkey? At least, it has 1 to 40 win rate.Either a Fking amateur or a fking liar.
jluceroo7 (3 months ago)
Best interview I ever seen. Honest funny guy and confirmed most of my assumptions of the market.
screamao (3 months ago)
if out of 10,u can get 6 profit trade thats already amazing.the key is to maintain 60% profit,leave 40% for losses
Yung100 (3 months ago)
Two words Risk Management 👌
Shaun's Fish Tanks (3 months ago)
read the price action and look for confluences,,, easy
james thackray (3 months ago)
The maths is based on a strategy of tossing a coin!!!!
RICKY GRIFFIN (3 months ago)
Trade London open only 2am to 4am Cst
Trader Kevin (3 months ago)
1000% agree , very well said
P Bowry (3 months ago)
Roulette is not 50/50 because there is either 0 or 00 (as well as black and red) which gives the Casino the edge !!
shadz goodridge (3 months ago)
i can listen to him and learn a lot he's ranking with chris terri love listening to them
Chris Hansen (3 months ago)
He has it. Its all psychological. It's not centered on the strategy or the market, not the news or the value but in the behavior of the humans trading. The reason why many people lose in trading is they lack knowledge and discipline. They don't know how humans behave in certain scenarios and don't put in the amount of effort to learn it. Because of this they go in blind with a strategy they learned that might not work because it conflicts with the most important factor in trading: "Human." Sometimes these strategies work like fitting a triangle through a circle but other times they fall hard because the market doesn't behave in the way that strategy works best. We must develop the skills to read past the charts and ratios and see the way a human reading those charts will feel about them and the decisions they themselves will choose. We aren't playing a numbers game against computers, we are playing a mind game against fellow humans. "If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle." - Sun Tzu
Kuziai (3 months ago)
There is no randomness in forex market everything controlled right to a PIP! yes a PIP. Algorithms do that not ppl. Its easy to predict the market once you know what algorhitms will do for the day. Second thing if you make more that 5 loses in a row quit trading because you have 0 understanding about markets
Hayden Lawrence (3 months ago)
Excellent interview. Key point for me is managing risk. Forget about how many losing trades you have just try to keep them small and let your good trades play out. In practice you can have more losing trades than winning trades and still turn a profit if you have the discipline to cut your loses and let the winners run.
Zhi Kai Zhang (3 months ago)
Thank you 🙏
Lawrence _ (3 months ago)
@Allan Mena I agree with you those who know how to trade forex will never tell you......
Azu Shi (3 months ago)
how come stocks have higher hit rate?
OB TC (4 months ago)
They (and they are out there) that 90% of all traders fail. because they still need ditch diggers and burger flippers, go to college and take a loan for $50,000 + and spend 4+ years of your life taking courses that don’t mean shit, they (individuals) come out and have to work minimum wage. Now that’s failure...nobody takes about that.
CHATS AND LIVE TRADES (4 months ago)
It is crazy how many of these guys start with the negative instead of giving you something you can use. All of this negative programming by these markets have an affect. You can achieve anything!!!!!
Khutso Seleke (4 months ago)
The trick is to hold all bad positions until you breakeven. Dont sell at a loss.
Luca Puzzoli (4 months ago)
I love this video! I am a big fan of Mark Douglas and trading psychology I believe in random outcome between win and losses this is how casinos make money on random outcomes only on a long term basis not on a trade by trade basis!! Happy trading check out mark Douglas if you want to understand your self better the key to success is inside your self not in the market
Kent Wrankmore (5 months ago)
Legend!
Millionairess (5 months ago)
That shit stressed me so bad that I started coming out of remission from my thyroid issues. I had to quit Trading Forex recently. My health and well being are my most important investments.
Ahmed Saffah (5 months ago)
wow. My inner divine voice just got replaced. Spot on. A week of wins and I got cocky at NFP day of all days. 😅 Wiser for it.
ASDF123000 (5 months ago)
grant cardone would disagree with that last sentence
ASDF123000 (5 months ago)
she fancies the old man
carot2003 (5 months ago)
Very interesting..
utunaaga (5 months ago)
Who is this guy? I heard the interviewer call him David. David who?
jay singer (5 months ago)
i know a couple hedge fund guys and they've all said the geniuses trade currencies. You should start a hedge fund! It's hard for an investor cus you have to understand the entire economic and political landscape of a country (interest rates, inflation, FDI). Then you have to predict what those will be in the future. Then you have to understand what country in the same region's economic and political landscapes are and will be. And then the same globally! . IS THIS TRUE ????????????????????????????????????
jay singer (5 months ago)
i know a couple hedge fund guys and they've all said the geniuses trade currencies. You should start a hedge fund! It's hard for an investor cus you have to understand the entire economic and political landscape of a country (interest rates, inflation, FDI). Then you have to predict what those will be in the future. Then you have to understand what country in the same region's economic and political landscapes are and will be. And then the same globally! . IS THIS TRUE ????????????????????????????????????
Sangdin Hatzaw (5 months ago)
soooo true
Cutting Edge Cool (6 months ago)
Serious experience and knowledge speaking!
Hayden Harris (6 months ago)
The forex graph direction changes far to often and without notice to make any use of training or strategies or softwares .
D.C.S. ACT (6 months ago)
Thanks for the Greed management.
Wavemaker (6 months ago)
He is using the 4-hr chart to enter a trade. His horizon must be in months and his stop loss is 150 pips.
ThisnThatPackRat (6 months ago)
Hahaha. ANYONE wanting to trade for a living should go to a card room and play poker. Get good at poker and take all those bad beats that are coming your way without muttering a word...then, and only then, start to think about trading.
Sinothi Phoswa (7 months ago)
I am Zulu! AND i know Muthi ( i like this man)
carlos Uzcategui (7 months ago)
No es difícil es una mentira .. Cada día cambian la tedencia y el que se duerme se lo lleva la corriente
Gats (7 months ago)
This guy is crazy... not sure if it's crazy good or crazy loony! Funny though. I think he's on the right track but had a hard time following him. Curious though that his best trade was one he admits he had no knowledge of. Not very inspiring.
Mr. Bill Parkinson (7 months ago)
You're talking about math and luck as the same thing. shut your mouth sir. You dont know its in a range? wtf... how have you made any money. you know its in a range right after it failed to break new lows or highs, its not rocket science. luck clusters huh lol you're delusional old man! life is not random, you create your reality, be intuitve to your emotions and the enrgies you're feeling. ni all aspects of life, not just trading.
Appraisal (7 months ago)
No risk when you read candle sticks
BINARY OPTIONS UK (8 months ago)
nice video
715490 926 (8 months ago)
Aka he cuts his losses quick. Stop holding on to bad stocks. Once you see it go down 1-3% of your position, sell it.
tomkwi36 (8 months ago)
Unbelievebly excellent stuff...That is in my opinion proof that you can find real pearls on the web.
joe caterman (9 months ago)
51 people blew their accounts.
gonçalo (9 months ago)
My best trading week i was taking huge risks, around 10-20% per trade, i was very emotional too because of lot size.What made me tons of money was just adding to winners, cut losses when i realize i was wrong and sticking up with a strategy. Now a days im too scared to do it again, just thinking that 3 or 4 wrong trades could have destroyed me...but ended up very very good. Number 1 rule: go with trending markets, dont try to find the top or the bottom
helena lessels (9 months ago)
What an excellent video, so absolutely true. Clusters of good and bad luck are to be expected, but my ability to navigate both needs a lot of work
KpxUrz5745 (10 months ago)
Agree with him that managing risk is essential for a trader, but I thoroughly disagree with his essentially dismal outlook that markets are SO random that every trade is a 50/50 proposition. By stepping up one's game in chart study, one can do far far better. And, there are clues to confidence level, so that the better setups can be traded more agressively. His approach seems so lackluster and sad. The learning curve can be quite lengthy, in becoming a consistenly profitable trader in non-upwardly biased markets, such as futures and currencies.
Higgs000Boson (10 months ago)
His best trade was when he didn't touch his position for a few days. I always thought it's the best strategy ;)
Kingdom Mann (10 months ago)
His math is wrong regarding "2 bad/good trades in a row." The correct answer is that there is a 1 in 4 (or 25% of the time this will occur over a 100 trades) chance of having 2 bad/good trades in a row.
Price Bayliss (10 months ago)
Hommie didnt mention about the green space on roulette...
Jason Alerts (10 months ago)
This guy sound like a losing trader. People actually make money in the Forex market and have a high success rate. These old skool traders think 50% is good well its not. 50% Win rate in my eyes is crap.
Yakub Miah (11 months ago)
I don't think she plays roulette.
Vogel (11 months ago)
Who is this guy?
Jack G (11 months ago)
Looking to make profit in forex? Here is what I have learned from my own experience and mistakes. First of all make sure you have atleast £10000 in your trading account or more, otherwise with small capital you will lose all your money little by little to the point that you will ended up losing more than £10000 soon. Because trading with small capital is making small profit and that won't satisfy you and you ended up trading more and more in a day to reach that profit figure you want and due to that you ended up losing at the ended. With more capital you only take one trade that you are 100% confident, don't aim for too many pips because with good size capital account you can make a very decent profit even with 10 to 15pips. So after that you don't need trade for that day and next day do the same. Wait for the best signal, aim for 10 to 15 pips and you know pips size.
Lawson_TheGeekery (11 months ago)
O.K.?
K . G. Zeus (1 year ago)
What a intriguing human.
Steve Austin (1 year ago)
red black red black red black red black.....plus 2 green...the house always wins
Great interview!
Ray Miller (1 year ago)
In order to be profitable you have to know the 1D trend and than open 10 Lots position and you will get 10 000 dollars every 100 pips move in $USDCAD for example. This is real Forex business. Trend is moving for at list two week and some time for a few month with from 500 pips up to 2000 pips. You can make money just watching a few time per day your position 10 lots and in few month you will have 200 thousands dollars profit. That my advice for retail traders.
Ray Miller (1 year ago)
Never use Fx with leverage less than 1:500 because there is no point to be on Fx with lot 0.01. You will just tired to work 24 in order to get 20 dollars and you will loose your small account by overtrading.
Ray Miller (1 year ago)
In order to be profitable you have to have account no less than 10 000 dollars with leverage 1:500 and trade 1 Lot only which will take $200 margin. Never use Stop because Broker will close your position with sleapage from 5 to 10 pips and you will be loosing your money all the time. You have to know the Tend on 1D chart and trading with the Trend. If price is moving against you but she stays in the Trend you just use this as a Gift to add 1 lot to your position and you will have $400 margin now of your 10 000 dollars account. With leverage 1:500 you can trade 20 lots but you never do that. You can maximum load you account with 10 lots and if you are in 1D trend you will never loose any money. But, if trend is changed you have to close all your position. Never trade Forex as a Day Trader. Never try get 20 or 50 pips because you are overtrading and you will loose all you account on the end. Im Financial Engineer and this is just Tip for retailers.
Insanity (1 year ago)
2:22 And that's why the stereotype of women being bad at math will always stay alive :) 3:00 To add in salt to the injury.
FERNANDO (11 months ago)
Insanity I'm bad in math too but I could easily calculate 1/2 x 1/2
Doctor Hill (1 year ago)
Truth spoken here.
Ali Alsabe (1 year ago)
This man is very thoughtful. Couldn't agree more with him
bebe bobo (1 year ago)
He is somewhat correct, you will lose in the fx market if you are gambling but if you have set certain rules then you can execute every trade with accuracy ! 99.99 % of traders are speculators which is why so many traders lose. speculation is the form of all evil. if you don't have a winning system Don't trade !
Mehdi Hashemloo (1 year ago)
Are forex traders entitled to Capital Gain Tax?
cobar53 (1 year ago)
He has not taken into account the reward to risk ratio. If a win gives 3 times a loss, his maths goes out the window
Luca Toscani (1 year ago)
This Guy is saying the absolute truth.
ProjectElevateHD (1 year ago)
To think them statistics classes wouldn't come in handy ...
jonathan yoakum (1 year ago)
I would sell my granny too
Presley Akokewhu (1 year ago)
Don't be deceived its a time wasting and difficult thing to do. Invest in assets with value in them not holding value in the differential of a specific position.

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